What is the Probability of Profit

Probability is the chance that something will happen – how likely it is that some event will happen. Sometimes you can measure a probability with a number like “10% chance of rain”, or you can use words such as impossible, unlikely, possible, even chance, likely and certain. When a probability trader is to set up a trade, he will sell […]

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Delta the Probability of Profit

Elaborating on Delta and probabilities requires delving into a bit of option theory. I’m not an expert on statistics by any stretch, but hopefully the following explanation helps. Given a coin flip (or some other random process that can result in one of two outcomes) that has a perfect 50-50 probability of landing on heads or tails (the probability of […]

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